Airbus’ recently released 2022-2041 Global Services Forecast (GSF) is predicting that the value of the commercial aircraft services market will more than double in 20 years. Currently valued at $95 billion, the GSF estimates that the industry will be worth over $230 billion in 2041 with around $189 billion spent on services to maintain aircraft, $17 billion on “training staff and operating the aircraft efficiently and sustainably” and $26 billion on “enhancing the in service fleet and passenger experience.” As per the forecast, Airbus is also expecting the market to recover to pre-COVID levels by the end of next year.
“Every day millions of people in services, hidden champions behind the scenes, keep our global fleet of aircraft flying,” said Philippe Mhun, Airbus executive vice president for programs and services. “Accelerated digitalisation of operations and maintenance as well as a higher proportion of latest generation aircraft in service will lead to a massive requirement for new skills and job creation, leveraging new tools and ways of working in order to further increase our sector’s efficiency, reduce fuel consumption and emissions.”
Airbus is further predicting that the demand for employees in aviation services will increase significantly over the next two decades, with around 585,000 new pilots, 640,000 new technicians and 875,000 new cabin crew members needed. The company also emphasized that next-generation passenger aircraft are expected to represent 95 percent of the operated fleet by 2041. The 2022-2041 Global Services Forecast covers “the air transport industry’s demand over the next 20 years to maintain assets, train professionals, operate fleets, and enhance passengers’ experience for aircraft above 100 seats plus freighters over 10 tons.”
“$95 billion, the GSF estimates that the industry will be worth over $230 in 2041”
Well, yea, 20 years of double-digit inflation will do that with zero growth. 😉
Run the numbers. I’m afraid your intuition is off. 230/95 over 19 years is a compound growth of 4.8%/year in nominal dollars. 10%/year compound growth over 19 years, in nominal dollars, would end up at $581bn.
Because the growth estimate is so much less than current inflation, and so much less than inflation pre-pandemic, I have to imagine it is cited in constant-value dollars. Take a look at the materials posted at the “2022-2041 Global Services Forecast” link. They repeatedly cite a “3.7% CAGR 2019-2022”. I have not found them clarifying if that is based on nominal or real dollars. I imagine it is probably real dollars.
I was being “generous”.
Basically they have no idea what the future holds and I personally believe that “air bus traffic” will never again be desired nor generally approved by lukerative business concerns. With the impending collaps of currencies and higher interest rates, on can only conclude that their “estimate” is PURE markeeting BS.
Global Bioenergies, who are due to get certification for their sustainable aviation fuel, made from sugar beet pulp, have pointed out that current regulations mean only a maximum of 50% of their fuel, mixed with ordinary kerosene will be allowed.
And that, if all their production plants are built on time, producing some 50,000 tonnes by the end of the decade, the price of SAF will still be 3x that of fossil fuel kerosene.
Given that the chance of the 1940s tax agreement not to tax jet fuel being changed is zero, inspite of protests on the streets (and no doubt airports), the only way SAF will work its way to the big airport near you is by government decrees — 1% is already required in France, Sweden and Norway, and 10% is the target by 2030…
My guess is that is where the extra money will be spent.
The reason for only allowing 50% is that the jet engine makers claim some aromatics in fossil fuel kerosene are necessary for lubricating some seals.
They refuse to change the seals…which effectively means that these are the last generation of jet engines we are likely to see.
Convert the fuel used by a commercial jet into litres used per second, and you will see the problem.